13 May 2011

Talkin' Turkey About Intervention

As to myself, I don’t want foreign intervention; gaining our freedom from Assad at the price of losing our freedom as a nation is too high. However, I’m not everyone and many in the opposition are looking seriously in a single direction: north.

Today, in Homs, they were chanting “Erdogan, Erdogan, tell him his people don’’t love him.” It’s not a fatuous plea and makes far more sense than one addressed elsewhere. The current Turkish government is widely admired here, by both many in the opposition and many who still support the regime. Turkish flags and signs appealing to Turkey have cropped up at demonstrations here.

A decade ago, that would have seemed crazy. On our side of the border, the Syrian government gave aid and safety to Kurdish separatists from the PKK waging war against the Turkish state while, on their side of the border, the Turks signed defense agreements with Israel and did joint training exercises. We were the common foe. We even came close to blows as disputes over water and such things grew. Older issues were always in mind: to this day, official maps of Syria usually show the Hatay, the area around Antioch and Alexandretta, as being in Syria and the French cession of that territory to Turkey on the eve of World War II is sometimes still compared to Chamberlain at Munich.

But things changed. The Arabs that partition stranded north of the border and the Turks south aren’t seen as reason for wars anymore. Turkey shifted its foreign policy from one of struggling to be accepted as “European” by a club that would never accept a Muslim country to embracing that identity. The Turkish economy boomed. A working, though not perfect, democracy began to flourish in Turkey and an Islamic Party, the AKP, that didn’t reject modernity or progress came to power.

And Syria and Turkey began growing closer. Water rights were worked out. The Kurdish war wound down (and in Turkey, Kurds were beginning to be accepted as equals). Free trade between our two countries was nehotiated; trade exploded across the border. Turkish goods, TV shows, Turkish people flooded Syria … free movement without a visa was established between us … and Turkey’s foreign policy shifted from being seen as the ally of Syria’s enemies to that of a friend.

And now … well, before all this started, I knew that if a foreign army invaded, I’d gladly fight and die to defend Syria, even if it meant to defend Assad! The memory of the long struggle for independence is still too real here for many of us to look at foreign intervention as something good. But, on the other hand, I honestly cannot see the type of foreign intervention that has happened in Libya as even remotely possible here.

Looking at a map shows a problem for a ‘Libya style’ intervention. Where would they come from? NATO can’t exactly launch an invasion from Anbar province. And the image of American or British or French troops greeting the Israelis in Jaulan is something that would get every true Syrian to stand by Assad.

However, again, look at the map. There is one country and only one country that can play a decisive role here and only one country remotely capable of doing so. That is Turkey. It’s the only country that plausibly could send ground forces in and be greeted by flowers and not by IEDs. No one else could.

Both sides here really do look to Turkey as a key. Within the regime, I see a struggle between a faction that sees Turkey as both a model for reform and a true friend but that faction (the reformists) are struggling against another group that looks to Iran. Right now, that group seems to be in control.

In the opposition, we see the huge economic and political progress Turkey has made in the past few decades as a model and an inspiration. Many of the members of the Brotherhood look to the AKP as a model for what they would like to become and, honestly, that is something that heartens many of us in the opposition. One can be an Islamic party and a democratic one.

Like Turkey, we also have the legacy of strong arm secularism forced on the country. Whether or not it was a good idea, the way that it was done – by brute force in both countries – turned a lot of people off. It would be great to see secularists and Islamists compete without force and simply by persuasion.

And the Turkish government has not been silent. Erdogan claimed earlier this week that 1,000 civilians have been killed here. Inside Turkey itself, as elections near, Kurdish Turks are saying they won’t be silent if the regime cracks down on Kurdish Syrians (though the Alawis in the Hatay are apparently vowing to fight for Uncle Bashar!). Turkey’s secularists and conservatives are watching … and they have an election coming up too soon …

And they are being watched: yesterday’s al Watan (a party paper here) read: "Ever since the eruption of the events in Syria – over a month ago – the Turkish official performance seemed to be rash and improvised” and attacked the AKP government as a front for the Muslim Brotherhood.. That never bothered them before …
They fear Erdogan taking our side for they know that is the only country that matters now.

And will Turkey intervene? I don’t know.

I do know that Erdogan is nobody’s fool; if he’s meeting with Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy or the leaders of the Gulf states … be aware of big things afoot.

5 comments:

Elizabeth Tsurkov said...

I think the Kurdish angle here is an important one. A democratic Syrian where Kurds enjoy some form of autonomy is seen as a threat by the Turkish regime. You can see it in Erdogan's statement from May 1 (http://bit.ly/jouFVT) where he kept mentioning Turkey's opposition to any "separation" of Syria (i.e. secession of Kurds). I also don't see Turkey as a democratic country (it is currently the #1 jailer of journalists, ahead of Iran and even China). Therefore, I don't see what kind of interest it has in intervening in Syria to stop these massacres. The Assad regime has been very friendly with Ankara and I think the muted reaction from Erdogan reflects that. I'm afraid the Syrians are all alone in this.

Omar Hamwi said...

Great topic. Think of this at a grander scale in the context of united we stand. The world is made of alliances, what better fit for an alliance than Arab and Turk? Differences of the past not withstanding, there is much more in common than divides. We need to seize on this.
First an Arab Federation, next an alliance with Turkey and Iran, then start thinking about how to deal with our greatest problem.

yanti said...

Omar's post sounds ominous. The fact that he alludes to 'our greatest problem' but fails to actually name it leaves me worrying that nothing has really changed in the Arab world and the disasters of the last century are about to be repeated.

caroline said...

Erdogan won't do anything soon. For as big a blowhard and mouth-offer as he is, he is keeping uncharacteristically silent. He does not want to be on a losing side or saddled with Syria's many problems, although he does like Syrian money and tweaking the West by being friendly with Syria. Turks make nice with Arabs in florid declarations of brotherhood, especially lately, but generally keep a few discreet paces clear from greater involvement.

Yeah Omar, what's "our greatest problem" exactly? The whole Arab world faces an uncertain future and plenty of big, nasty issues in its own back yard, plus a long history of distrust and betrayal among Arabs, Turks and Persians. Why don't you sort all that out first? It should take some time.

ece said...

Maybe it's just because we're "Euroasian";) yes we share same religion (probably way much more "flexible" influence in daily life) with our Arabian siblings though we've totally different view in politics and ethnic motives. Biggest conflict is we pray like Arabs live like Europeans. From time to time this contradiction may cause some impasses.

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