26 April 2011

On the arrests of oppositionists




They are using an old scheme of repression that would have worked in past challenges:
the notion is that an attempt to overthrow the regime would come from a small group of conspirators. Round up a few dozen at most and the coup attempt is squashed; it happened often enough in the old days (when there was either a coup or coup attempt of the week, 1949-1958 or so) and that pattern was common. For stopping that, they are effective.

The 1976-82 crisis was harder but was still one where repression in one city and round ups elsewhere could 'break the back' of the Ikhwaan, though instead of dozens, that was a matter of a couple thousand.

But with both those models, it's relatively straightforward: locate the leadership cadres and armed cells, round them up or kill them.

And 'problem solved'

This time, though, it's different. There aren't a group of leaders to round up or cells to break; instead, the very lack of organized leadership _is_ the biggest problem for them and even then, IMHO, they are moving too late.

Six months ago, they could have arrested 100 people; sentenced ten of them to death or long sentences and that would be that.
In February, a couple hundred would be enough.

Now, I would say that they need to shoot a few thousand and detain a few tens of thousands to suppress things. (And the nature of Syria makes this worse for them though also makes victory harder for us: Syria is like the USA or modern Germany in not having a single center where everything happens: in Tunisia or Ireland -- and even France or Egypt -- what happens in the capital is the beginning and end of things. here, though, there are at least half a dozen places to either take or hold ... Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Ataxia, Hama, Raqqa ... you need to get them _all_...

3 comments:

Marilyn said...

Dear Amina -- Have been following your blog since I discovered it: hoping for your safety and your family's, and that I'll get to read your novel and book of poems. I've forwarded the blog to others & can forward good wishes and admiration -- of you, and of your father too from:

Fady,Palestinian doctor and poet in the United States
Wafa'a, Iraqi translator and teacher in Mosul
Aviva, Indian translator & historian in Paris
wa âna, Marilyn, American poet and translator (and student of Arabic, and lover of Damascus..) in Paris

tunis said...

hey, your dad is the best, loved the blog post
can you contact me please? you should see my email adress, i hope. thank you !

David said...

Dear Amina:

Read your post about your father. GREAT Story. Would love to chat with you about it and the situation in country. @VOAByrd on Twitter.

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