I haven't been reposting things from elsewhere, but this is a great analysis of how many protesters there are from syriacomment.com:
Below is my response to his argument that only 2% are involved in the protests. By examining many youtube videos of the Syrian protesters, one will conclude the following
1. Most protesters are aged between 18-40 2. 95% of protesters are men.
For the total number of protesters, I am going to use the same estimate provided by the anonymous retired diplomat, i.e. 400,000 protesters. ·
We can safely assume that for each male protester, a female relative of the same age group (wife, sister…) stayed home yet shared the same sentiment of her male relative ( I am going to call them passive female protesters). This makes the number of protesters (active & passive) 780,000.
Its probably safe to assume that the age group (18-40) constitute 35% of the population. This bring the total number of ( Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families) to 2,250,000… ·
Given the tremendous risk of being shot dead during demonstrations. It is safe to assume that only a % of the disgruntled population would actually go out and protest. I will estimate that only 3 out of each 10 disgruntled male citizens came out to the streets. This brings the total number of Active protesters + Passive-female protesters +their extended families+ scared-to-protest to 7,500,000.
Most protesters are sunni Muslims. Sunni Muslims are 70% of the population, this comes to be 16, 310,000. This means that 46% of sunnis are involved in the protests (active, passive, and scared)
Some people have been inflating the population of Damascus, it is only 1.64 millions. ( see tables) · Aleppo and Damascus (total of 4 millions inhabitants) have not yet participated in the demonstrations.
Governate Population* ( in millions)
Damscus (City) 1.648
Damscus (Subrubs) 1.711
Aleppo 5.315
Homs 1.977
Hama 1.938
Latakia 1.161
Deir ElZor 1.511
Hasaka 1.445
Raquah 0.903
Swaydaa 0.46
Daraa 1.011
Tartous 1.011
Qunaytira 0.904
Tartous 0.446
Idlib 1.865
Total 23.306
Population Under 15 years of age** 40%
Population over 65 years of Age** 3.30%
Popoulation between 15 & 65** 56.70%
*المصدر: المكتب المركزي للإحصاء (2008) National census Office
**المصدر: المكتب المركزي للإحصاء (2004) National census Office
Addendum from same contributor: I did some additional work that I want to share with you. Basically, I am listing each Syrian governate with its respective districts, and then providing a link to one youtube video for a protest that took place there if available. I invite you to draw your own conclusions on this easy to follow table and articulate them in Syria Comment. By the way, I am posting videos only taken at district centers. I am ignoring all others in other cities and villages.
Governate Districts Protests at District Center only
Deraa Deraa http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QWlsT0imq8
Izraa http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6Il7E06ShQ
Al-Sanamein http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMhK3lvn2oI
Suwaydaa Suwaydaa http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3Rr3_e1HU4&feature=related
Shahba None
Salkhad None
Homs Homs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eD70YIvDjKg
Talkalakh http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViF9Xfi-Jwc&feature=related
Rastan http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlmo3qqUHdE&feature=related
Al-Qusayr http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yEmwuvKjeg&feature=related
Tadmour http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gapDYC-H03c&feature=related
Al-Mukhrram None
Deir-Al-Zour Deir-Al-Zour http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxQghoXFvYQ&feature=related
Abou Kamal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoqJSHh3FFY&feature=related
Al-Mayadin http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qMDkkQXMzw&feature=related
Al-Hasakah Al-Hasakah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=039AKm7DgYg
Qamishli http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXZ4BfnBehA&feature=channel_video_title
Malikieh http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvJHO-_f220&feature=relmfu
Rass Al-Ain http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3VXMBpuVZ4
Raqah Raqah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1npYYY7rxjc&feature=related
Tal Abyad None
Al-Thawra http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5kNsPA9uGY
Halab (Aleppo) Halab (Aleppo) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qJi5gnLPkY
Al-Bab http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rw8NpxY3OpM&playnext=1&list=PL0499FC0A32ACC15F
I’zaz None
Jarablus None
Al-Safirah None
Afrin None
Ain Al Arab http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0-tjjd3DvA
Manbej None
Idlib Idlib http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXUF9qhOCSE&feature=related
Ariha http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC77C1CISwo&feature=related
Jisr Al-Shughour http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbkCbufPpVs&feature=related
Harim None
Mu’arra Al-No’man http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUHWPATHIYw&feature=related
Hama Hamah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHIbyqwLHRE&feature=related
Suqalbeiyyah None
Salamiyah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1LpPkEFfhQ
Muhardeh None
Misyaf None
Tartous Tartous http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_-tHZG1Ido&feature=related
Banyas http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9Dp6gCXxJM
Draykish None
Shiek Badr None
Safita None
Qunaytira Qunaytira Mostly Occupied By Israel
Damscus (City center) City Center http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_qetFQ0W2I
Damscus Suburbs Al-Tal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmQRPQWj1SM&feature=related
Darayya http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nad7rETYLA
Douma http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4vUJbXDxfM&feature=related
Zabadani http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB0o7qpFObE&feature=related
Qatana http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX6Jtx1Htog
Al-Qutayfah None
Nabik None
Yabrud http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd5bdyfDBAY&feature=related
Latakia Latakia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjjLiV8MkU4&feature=related
Jableh http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buCxmBOCslM
Al-Heffah None
Al-Qurdaha None
1 comments:
âhlan yâ âmina al-'azîza.. Can you mention why we see so few women in the pics that come out of the Syrian demos ? (Joshua Landis almost seemed to be overshooting at 5%) I've been in Damascus & Aleppo, and women, both covered and uncovered, are very present on the streets, in public buildings, in shops & restaurants, at all hours. Is it because the Syrian demos, unlike those in Egypt & Tunisia -- where outsiders could see many women participating -- didn't start & are not largely going on in urban centers? How do you and your women friends & comrades participate?
'aâsha al-muqâwama!
m'a hobbî
Marilyn
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