21 May 2011

After Assad 2: Beyond our Borders

Let’s imagine for a moment that Assad and his regime are gone. I’m not a prophet so I can no more say how it will happen than I can say when but I am quite certain that it will be sooner rather than later. Anyhow, let’s imagine that they are gone and that it has been a smooth transition, a ‘soft landing’ or what have you; like the end of Communism in, say, Poland or Hungary … and let’s imagine that, when the dust settles, there’s a vibrant, multiparty democracy here. The Communist and Syrian Nationalist parties compete with the Muslim Brotherhood, Kurdish regional parties, as well as anyone else who wants to run: Socialists, pro-business conservatives (ya Mitch Daniels, yella!), Armenian parties, heck, even the Baath party has seats in our parliament!

I can’t of course predict the exact balance of parties then: I’d presume that the Brotherhood or similar groups – maybe something like the Turkish AKP only rather more ‘modernist’ – and whatever the rump of a post-Assad, post dictatorship Baath would be the biggest, but I have no real idea (and honestly, anyone who gives precise numbers for syrian political opinion is finding their data in the clouds). However, I can make some guesses as to how a democratic, open Syria would look to its neighbors:

Terrifying!

And that is certainly not a good thing. Certainly, some states will see their own influence decline here. Take a look at this video from Hama, yesterday:



Neither Iran nor Russia have ever been popular here and, more than anything, that has been caused not by the people of those countries but by the relations their governments have had with the regime here. The French left and we were free from foreign control for a brief time … and then, when this regime first came to power, they wedded themselves to Moscow. And for a quarter century, Moscow had undue influence here. Russians came and acted like they were our colonial overlords. And the party tried to force us down the Soviet road. Sure, there were a few benefits: Muhammad Faris go to go to Mir …

and the army got some shiny toys. But we also got to experience a renewal of colonialism.
The Cold War ended and, logically, it should have meant the end of dependence on them though, lately, the regime has been trying to lure them back.

And then there’s Iran, an alliance that was forged when the ‘party of Arab unity’ in Damascus and the ‘party of Arab unity’ in Baghdad found that the promotion of the leader and sectarianism were more important. Saddam and Khomaini fought a war and ole Hafidh decided that Khomaini and the “Islamic Republic” was who he was pulling for … and so the secular socialist state slaughtered Sunnis while the sectarian neo-Safavids clapped their hands in glee. And Iranians flocked to Damascus; who has no memories of the packs of pilgrims lead by their ayatollah snapping photos through the city?

And when that war was over, they did not cut those ties but let them grow deeper; two states based on sectarian hatred and desire to avenge that Ali was passed over three times by wiser heads. While the American fools toppled Saddam, this regime’s ally was at least as responsible for the destruction of Iraq. The paragon of Arab unity smiled while they sent their agents and Iraqi traitors in to slaughter any Christian or Sunni that they could lay hand on. This party of Arab unity congratulated the murder of members of that party of Arab unity.

But I am sidetracked:

Of course, Iran stands to lose when Assad goes. 90% or more of Syrians despise that alliance. No way will a democratic Syria maintain a friendship with them, at least not a close one. And certainly not while their leader vows that he will fight the Israelis until the last drop of Syrian blood.

Who else stands to lose from Democracy in Damascus?

Certainly, the theives of Baghdad, all of them, will be dismayed; what happens to them when the Iraqi people start to question why they have been so long oppressed by sectarian warlords?

And closer … well, Lebanon will change greatly and soon. Back before this regime came to power, after Lebanon was created by the French, the big men of all the clans and sects met up and made their national pact. The Marouni wanted a western facing Lebanon, severed from the Arab nation and the Sunni leaders then wanted reunion with the rest of Syria. This regime, though, intervened to preserve minority rule, killed Jumblatt when he called for one Lebanese, one vote; they drove the Arab nationalists from them and favored assorted separatists, whether Christian or Shia. How long will the current blocs in Lebanon retain their balance once Syria is free?

How strong will the idea of sectarianism trumping all else remain there or in Iraq when sectarianism is dead here? How long before unionist parties are all the rage? And who stands to lose? Well, when sectarianisms’ days are numbered and Khusrau’s dreams have been denied, Hezbollah will weaken … and it is sad to see that once noble group that fought for freedom for all Lebanon already transform itself into another sectarian and separatist brand. Nasrallah’s TV promotes Assad’s lies; they fear us too.

But if Hezbollah declines, it should be but small comfort to our southwestern neighbors. A democratic Syria is, if anything, going to be rather more, not less, pro-Palestinian than the present regime. That cannot be helped; this regime is least of all the Arabs of Syria tied to the Palestinian people and has always lagged behind popular feeling on this question. Remember, it took a CIA coup and the overthrow of democracy here to get a ceasefire the first time. Remember, it wasn’t people from the regime that they expelled from Jaulan. No, they still want to go home and recovery of Jaulan has been something they, the Jaulanis, have made clear in Dera’a and Damascus in these days of the revolution. A dictator might have agreed to cede
Jaulan; no democratic government will.

And I have said this before, but will again, that the mapmakers need to be ready for the end of this season of revolution. When the dust has settled, some states will have merged and otehrs divided. This is not just a revolution against dictatorship; it is the end of the era inaugrated when the Caliphate fell and these minority regimes were installed by force of western arms. Soon, believe me, when we have democracy in all these states, the urge for unity will be heard again. All these states come from drinking bouts of Churchill and his peers; they will vanish when the last of these puppets goes. Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and yes, Palestine, were the bilad ash Sham and will be again.

Or maybe not: we will be for democracy at home and all around. We will have local responsible governments: when this regime is gone, there will be signs on Kurmanji in Qamishli; if in Idlib or Hama they want to ban sales of alcohol and in Latakia, Maaloula and Sweida they want to sell it 24 hours, they will. It is called democracy. So, if the people of a democratic Jordan want to join us, we will not stop them, nor make them if they don’t. If a democratic Lebanon wants to undo partition, so will we.

When we are democratic, we will not look kindly at sectarian regimes, dictatorships and occupations. We will support those who challenge those.

It will be a new region indeed. When we are through, there will be a whole new Middle East.

And while we, the Syrian people, will clearly benefit, so too will some others. Turkey, for instance, stands much to gain. Turkey can play the role of an elder brother to these emerging democratic states. For now, their heads are filled with their own elections but they are watching closely. What happens if the Kurds of Syria gain democratic freedom without war? Good things I suspect. And a new bloc of democratic states with expanding economies will emerge, looking to Turkey as the first. Remember the Asian tigers? Prepare for the Muslim tigers of tomorrow …

Outside powers will not be happy when our nation democratizes. We will not be handing off the assets of the nation, whether oil or canals, to the highest bidder. We will keep those for the common good, for ourselves. And as the democratic revolution spreads, those companies that have held these assets or managed them for the sons and grandsons of pirates and banditlords will likely see them shrink. Those foreign armies squatting on our lands will need to go home.

Is this good, is this bad? You tell me; I am saying what I foresee.

And knowing who won’t benefit and who will benefit from this regime’s fall makes me naturally suspicious of some offers of aid. Ahmadinejad, Nasrallah, Netanyahu and Obama all represent groups that stand to lose if Assad goes. So will any or all of them back the regime? You tell me.

8 comments:

Vanity said...

Amina -

Thank you so much for your blog. I've just started reading. I'm so pleased to hear your thoughts...but I wonder if you aren't being too optimistic. Don't you think something like what you are describing (the great changes int he region) will take say 50 or 100 years to fully actualize itself?

In so doing, don't you also think that the Western world (e.g. USA, Europe) will find ways to interfere?

Omar said...

A good discourse, no doubt. One initial premise puzzles me.

Ending sectarian thought is not an instant in time, it is a process. One that has a foundation in education. People learn to be nonsectarian, I propose it is closer to basic human instict to be sectarian. You need to work to overcome it.
If you buy the premise of the process, then we have a long way to go.
Imagine for a moment "wazarat al-tawiya", pretty scary thought, no?
So how do we do it? We have much work to do.
You know who has made great inroads on this? - brace yourself, here comes the controvercial part - The Jews.
Why?
Three reasons:
they have a need - must stay united.
discipline - I think we can match them on this one.
Motivation - we have lots of work to do here.
Maybe we need a ministry of oranization, but where would they start?

yanti said...

Amina,

I reckon none of these external powers you mentioned has much influence on what happens in Syria now, and no-one has a clue what to do about it anyway. It's up to you guys really. If you push him hard enough he'll fall over.

Veganovich said...

I hate to come off as a pessimist, especially since I truly admire your courage. But I think it is unlikely that if the current regime falls, Syria will transition smoothly to democracy like Poland or Hungary. When the iron curtain fell, the people in Eastern Europe were united in their ideas about what the new government should look like. There was a broad general consensus that the West provided a better model for society. In Syria, the opposition is united in their opposition to the current regime, but not in their vision for the future of Syria.

Moreover, places like Poland and Hungry were not divided by tribe and religion in the way that Syria is. Democracy works better in societies that are not multiethnic. This is because where political parties are organized by ideology, the party that loses believes they could campaign better have a different outcome in the next election. Where political parties are organized around tribal and religious affiliation, democracy means the minority parties will always be in the minority unless there is demographic change. An Alawite in Syria has as much reason to support democracy as a Sunni in Iraq. And as we know, that didn’t work out too well.

Anonymous said...

Optimistic or no, change must start somewhere. It certainly can't hurt to articulate clearly your objectives, the better to evaluate whether a particular course of action is consistent with them.
Thank you so much for your posts - they are inspiring and incredibly informative.
Best wishes!
Jess

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with Veganovich in many ways. Transcending the difficulties of revolution and organization are one thing, transcending the difficulties of the democratic process are another. Forging a democratic republic an a nation without a democratic tradition has proved historically difficult, and Eastern Europe is but one example when held up against other transitions to majority democratic rule, such as in Latin America and Africa.

I'm not saying that I don't hope for a free and democratic Middle East, nor am I saying that such a thing is impossible. However, a united Arab nation, or even majority democratic rule in all of the nations which have experienced revolution, will require not only commitment from the people, but also serious and talented political leadership which may, or may not, emerge.

As you say, Turkey could present both a political model and provide concrete assistance to emerging Arab democracies. I very much hope so, and if a Syria emerges along Turkish lines, it would be a great triumph for freedom.

My concern is that the Arab Spring will turn all too quickly to winter, whether after a short summer or a longer one. Democratization is incredibly difficult, and the democratic process is not always smooth or easy even in an established democratic society--you need look only to the American election in 2000, where George Bush may well have been handed the presidency.

Still, I don't want to come off as too pessimistic. Whatever the outcome, the revolutions currently underway are a hope to the world. Your blog is proving to be a wonderful and informative resource for those of us in the West who are following these events with hope and a sense of reflected exhilaration. Best wishes,
John

akkadia said...

thanks for your playful and witty diction; it makes such complex history easier to absorb. you know how to reach people. you possess the three keys of any good writing: eye, heart and genius.

Anonymous said...

I wonder where those guys got those flags from? :P

Democracy is a process, so if the Syrian people manage to remember why they toppled Assad and keep the pressure on their government, then I believe that your positive future scenario is plausible.

People should not stop talking, thinking or acting. When people get lazy with their democratic rights then that's when George W. Bush wins the election; that's when healthcare slips from our fingers; that's when the regime can tell us what to do.

Never let up! Never stop and say what we're given is enough! The pressure has to keep up and stay on!
-KKS

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